WPP total fertility, edition by edition
Estimates and projections · 17 editions of World Population Prospects (WPP)
What it shows
The piece draws the period total fertility rate of one country or area as each of 17 editions of the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects, from 1990 to 2024, estimated it and, in the medium variant, projected it. Played edition by edition, it shows how each edition revised the estimates and the projection of the one before.
The method
Two kinds of revision show together in one panel. A change in the estimates is the UN revising what fertility was: with each edition it re-evaluates its estimates as new data from censuses, surveys and registers arrive, and reviews its methods (United Nations, 2024a). A change in the projection is the UN revising what it expects fertility to do.
How to read it
Years run from 1950 to 2100 along the horizontal axis; the vertical axis counts children per woman. The edition shown is named in large type above the key. Its estimates are the dark line, and its projection the crimson line that starts where the estimates end. The previous edition’s estimates stay behind as a dashed grey line: where the dashed and dark lines part, the new edition has revised the previous one’s estimates. Every earlier edition’s projection is drawn in grey, the most recent darkest and older ones paler. A dotted line marks 2.1 children per woman, often cited as the replacement level.
A country or area appears only in the editions that published it, and those editions arrive one at a time, starting from the earliest. With each, the dark line eases from the previous edition’s line into the new estimates, the previous projection turns grey, and the new projection grows from where the new estimates end. While the editions are paused, pointing at an earlier projection names its edition. Where a country’s territory changed between editions, the lines of the editions before the change turn teal once a later edition is shown.
The visual
Data & sources
| Quantity | Provenance | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate, estimates | estimated | The edition’s estimates |
| Total fertility rate, projection | projected | The edition’s medium variant |
| Editions 1998 to 2024 | as published | United Nations (1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2024b) |
| Editions 1992, 1994 and 1996 | as published | United Nations (1992, 1994, 1996) |
| Edition 1990 | transcribed | United Nations (1991), Table 41 |
The UN’s data archive begins with the 1992 edition, so the 1990 values were transcribed from the printed volume (United Nations, 1991, Table 41).
The piece holds 17 editions (1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022 and 2024) and 243 countries or areas: 147 in the 1990 edition, 201 in each edition from 2012 to 2019, and 236 in 2022 and 2024. Editions up to 2019 report one value per five-year period from 1950–1955; the 2022 and 2024 editions report one per calendar year. The 1990 and 1992 editions project to 2020–2025, the 1994–2008 editions to 2045–2050, and later editions to 2100.
The piece leaves out the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), whose territory differs between the only two editions that publish it. It also leaves out five entities that appear in a single edition: the Gaza Strip in 1996, and the German Democratic Republic, the Federal Republic of Germany, Democratic Yemen and the Yemen Arab Republic in 1990. The Holy See is excluded as well, because the 2022 and 2024 editions give it a nominal rate for fewer than 1,400 residents.
Scope and limits
The piece reproduces the UN’s published series and does not evaluate them. An edition’s estimates are themselves a reconstruction: for many countries the UN estimates fertility from censuses and surveys rather than reading it from complete birth registration (United Nations, 2024a). A later edition’s estimates are therefore not an observation against which an earlier edition can be scored.
The medium variant is the UN’s central projection. The piece shows neither the high and low variants nor the probabilistic projections that recent editions publish.
Methods
Countries and areas
Identity follows the UN location code. Among the codes shown, four kept their number while their territory changed: China included Taiwan Province of China until the 2008 edition, Comoros included Mayotte until 2006, Jordan included the West Bank until 1998, and Serbia included Kosovo until 2019. These four are drawn with the change marked. Codes that ended and were replaced by new ones appear as entries of their own: Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Serbia and Montenegro, Ethiopia (including Eritrea), Sudan (Former), the Netherlands Antilles and the Channel Islands.
Drawing
Each value is placed at the middle of the period it describes: a five-year period at its midpoint, a calendar year at mid-year. Values are joined by a monotone cubic curve (Fritsch & Carlson, 1980), which passes through every published value and adds no peak or dip the values do not have. While the estimates ease from one edition to the next, both lines are sampled on the same quarter-year grid and blended; at either end of the easing the line is exactly one edition’s.
The key and the edition’s name sit where no line of the country ever passes; on a narrow screen they sit above the plot.
Controls
Continent and Country or area choose the panel; choosing a new one restarts the editions from its first. The edition slider shows any edition in its finished state and pauses there. Play, Pause and Restart drive the editions, and Speed sets how many arrive per minute, from 6 to 60, without changing any value. Reset returns to Brazil and the default speed. ↓ PNG saves the current frame, with its provenance caption, as a Portable Network Graphics (PNG) image. A reader whose system asks for reduced motion gets the finished panel on load, and Replay then steps through the editions without easing.
References
Fritsch, F. N., & Carlson, R. E. (1980). Monotone Piecewise Cubic Interpolation. SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 17(2), 238–246. https://doi.org/10.1137/0717021
United Nations (1991). World Population Prospects 1990. Population Studies, ST/ESA/SER.A/120. New York: United Nations, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. un_1990_world_population_prospects-1990_revision.pdf
United Nations (1992). World Population Prospects: The 1992 Revision, Excel Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP1992-Excel-files.zip
United Nations (1994). World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision, Excel Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP1994-Excel-files.zip
United Nations (1996). World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Excel Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP1996-Excel-files.zip
United Nations (1998). World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP1998-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2000). World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2000-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2002). World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2002-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2004). World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2004-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2006). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2006-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2008). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2008-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2010). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2010-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2012). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2012-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2015-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2017-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2019-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2022). World Population Prospects 2022: CSV Files. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. WPP2022-CSV-data.zip
United Nations (2024a). World Population Prospects 2024: Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. UN DESA/POP/2024/DC/NO. 10. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
United Nations (2024b). World Population Prospects 2024: Online Edition. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. population.un.org/wpp
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